《中國大歷史》黃仁宇
在結束本書時，我乘機解釋寫這書的哲學立場。初看之下，宏觀歷史好像與道德全不相關。人類之行動在大範圍內展開，只循著若於因果關係，不能由各個人意願左右，更難因著他道德上的希望而遷就。在寫作以上各章時，我更將前一時代所留下來的影響昭然指出，就和以前的史書不同。傳統的史學家通常將每朝代之初當作一段有創造性的時代，當日的人口和社會都帶著可塑性，可以由一代偉人照著他的理想轉折成器。我自信我的敘述比較近乎實情，可是也會造成一種定命的印象，亦即註定將發生的事物總會發生，道德與否和事實之來往無關。這樣無人性的立論很可能擾亂讀者的心情，更可能冒犯有些敏感的讀者，然則這不是作者之本意。 下圖裡面，實線部分表示我想像中歷史之形成。它也是人類不斷向前推進所留下來的紀錄。
【本書命意】
為簡明起見，我們以三個較大的段落代表當中無數短程的進展。我們的路程連亙不斷，朝以繼夕，有如印度思家所謂「羯磨」（或因果報應，karma）或如西方神學家所謂「定命」（predestination）。即從一個讀史者的眼光看來，我們的自由，無論如何也只能始自我們祖先撒手的地點。自此向空伸出的箭頭表示我們理想主義之傾向。道德也在這時候成為一種有力量的因素。大凡人類全體性的動作既有群眾運動之參與，必帶犧牲自我的決心，也包含著公平合理的性格。可是和這種傾向作對的有向心的力量，以較短的箭頭表示。後者或稱為「原罪」，或者如宋儒所提的「人欲」。弧線上的歷史進程總是以上兩種力量之總和，也就是陰與陽之合力。
歷史之總意義，也如這圖所示，在其整個的美感。人類整部歷史不過約一萬年，在宇宙的生命裡不過是極為短促的一部分。而我們所能理解的宇宙生命尚且可能是更大事物當中的又一小部分。如康德所說，「事物自身」（things in themselves 或noumena）非人力可得而知。在弧線的前後，我以虛線畫出，此不過根據人類歷史，推想其來蹤去跡。如此看來，實線的真實性也靠虛線之陪襯而得，並且也只有相對的意義。 人類歷史之大塊文章，以長遠的距離視之，屬於神學領域。作者的經驗識量有限，只好像鸚鵡學舌一樣將大哲學家康德提出作為交代。除此之外我不能將我個人有限度的觀測去推論無可知之數。同時，歷史家的眼光總是以回顧為主，在廣大空間劃出幾條短線，並無預言的意義。
現在有不少教科書作者在敘述西方事物時，乘空插入一兩段有關中國瑣碎之事而稱之為世界史。在我看來，人類四分之一的生活歷程不容如是草率處理，尤其在我們已臨到一個緊要關頭之時。所以我提出中國歷史的全部歷程，注重它內部的節奏和特性，然後才提到它與現代西方衝突與接觸的全部經過。這樣的安排也確能使我們觀察世事時帶著一種前所未有的眼光。以前很多人認為中國人全不合情理之處即可因此冰釋。我們也可以從中看出地理環境在歷史上的重要，而人類長期忍耐力之偉大也因之而顯然。各人對以上的反應不同，可是能將一個古老國家的維新以及她重新振作的態勢筆之於書，作者已有一股愉快的感覺，並且希望讀者有此同感。
CHINA A MACRO HISTORY - RAY HUANG pp. 961-967
In conclusion, I would like to sum up my philosophy as a historian in preparing this volume. At a glance, macrohistory seems amoral. The unfolding of human events on a large scale follows certain cause-and-effect relationships independent of any individual's wish, let alone his moral aspiration. In drafting each chapter, I have further underlined the overbearing effects of past deeds, differing from the dynastic historians of the traditional school who habitually present the dawn of each era as a creative period, during which the population and society are malleable enough for men of destiny to proceed from their inventive schemes. While closer to reality, the outline of Chinese history presented here may create an overall impression that what will happen is bound to happen and morals do not count. This brutal positivism could be disturbing if not offending to some sensitive readers. That, however, is not the message that the author wishes to convey.
In the diagram below, the solid portion of the curve is my idea of the configuration of world history. It is made of an infinite number of short thrusts of human effort. For clarity, only three large segments are presented. (Basically this is also the concept of macrohistory.) Called karma or predestination, the compulsion of the past is such that our path runs in a continuous circuit. What freedom of choice we are entitled to starts from where we stand, in the footsteps left by our forefathers. The arrows pointing skyward suggest our idealistic tendencies. Moral power has to be a vital force, since the mass movement represented by the drive of each arrowhead, involving self-sacrifice of an enormous magnitude, cannot be launched without some sense of universal justice, genuine or assumed. But to counter it, there is always a centrifugal pull. Should we call it original sin, or, as Chinese philosophers refer to it, "human desire"? World history evolves out of the inter-reaction of the yin and the yang.
The ultimate meaning of history, seen in this configuration, resides in its wholesome aesthetic quality. The reader is reminded that the entire written history of mankind extends over something less than 10,000 years, indeed a very short segment within the life of the universe, which may well be a small portion of something else. Following Kant, we can only say that "things in themselves" are unknowable. The dotted portions of the spiral - the prehistory period as well as the unknown future enable us to sustain our faith in the long-term rationality of history beyond the realm of our mundane experience.
When large chunks of history are reviewed at a distance, the setting is automatically theological. Having no ambition to venture into that awesome sphere, I am more than content to parrot the voice of a giant to relieve myself of the impossible task of relating my limited observations to the unknown. That done, let me say again that the wisdom of the historian is essentially retrospective. To plot some dots in empty space is by no means prophetic.
At this juncture the backlog of Chinese history suggests a number of possibilities. But their combination and timing are so unpredictable that I, after making several strong statements up to this point, feel reluctant to further assert what is bound to happen in days yet to come. Suffice it to say that Pandora's Box has not been totally emptied and that in the future the earth still belongs to the living.
Instead of building any universal system, this small book reverses the practice of some textbook writers who, while narrating the events of the Western world, intermittently add episodes about China and things Chinese, some of them carrying no more weight than footnotes, and count the whole package as "world history." As I see it, the life story of one quarter of mankind deserves to be treated with more care, especially at this juncture when a crucial point has been reached. My scheme of presentation calls out the entire length of Chinese history, together with its inner rhythm and characteristics, for a reconsideration of its confrontation with the modern West. When the baseline of history is rolled back, the protracted struggle before a merger in force makes more sense with the added dimension. The new arrangement does give us an opportunity to see world events in a different light. For one thing, much of the clamor about Chinese absurdity can now be put aside. For another, the effect of geography begins to stand out, and along with it the power of human endurance. Individual reactions to these elements are expected to differ. I, as author, nevertheless hope that together they bring to my readers, tourists and fellow students of history alike, a more pleasant feeling of the reinvigorated longevity of a nation which is, in this jet age, only slightly more than a half day's distance from us.